ISSN: 1998 - 4162

JISR MSSE Journal Contents

Volume 7, Number 1, January 2009


Forecasting Inflation Using Univariate and Multivariate Time Series
Azam Ali - State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi, Pakistan

Abstract
The purpose of the study is to forecast inflation in Pakistan from January to June 2008. This study set out to redress the deficiency and explicitly use of time series techniques solely for forecasting purposes. The analysis based on the time series available from July 1995 to December 2007. Inflation is a trending series with the possibility that the trend is time varying. It is also plausible that monthly inflation could move around a time varying mean. Forecasting inflation is a difficult but essential task for the successful implementation of monetary policy. Inflation forecasts are central to macroeconomic analysis...

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