ISSN: 1998 - 4162

JISR MSSE Journal Contents

Volume 12, Number 2, July 2014

Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Pakistan: Credit Channel or Interest Rate Channel
Sayed Irshad Hussain - SZABIST, Karachi, Pakistan
Samia Awais - COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan

This study uses vector autoregressive approach to estimate the relative importance of credit and interest rate channels in the monetary transmission mechanism of Pakistan by covering the period from 1991-Q3 to 2012-Q2. The purpose of the study is to explore the role played by monetary policy shocks in economicfluctuations. The results based on variance decomposition technique and impulse response function demonstrate that for the combine sample period covering from 1991-Q3 to 2012-Q2 both the credit and interest rate channels seem ineffective and it was difficult to distinguish which channel is more important during this period in Pakistan's case. The sample period was then divided into two subsample periods and both the channels were observed in two subsample periods. However, credit channel was dominant in the first sample covering 1991-Q3 to 2000-Q4 and interest rate channel performs a much greater role in transmitting policy shocks in the second sample period of 2001-Q1 to 2012-Q2. Hence, it is concluded that the role of both transmission channels changed during the last two decades. The role of the credit channel in transmitting monetary shocks has considerably weakened since the early 2000s, whereas interest rate channel is more important during this period These results have important implications for policy design, supporting a greater emphasis on financial prices than the quantity of credit in order to accomplish the targets of monetary policy in Pakistan.


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